The median plant load factors in the key solar power generating states remained largely stable varying between 17% and 20% across states, depending on the plant location and DC-AC ratio.
The ratings agency expects the energy demand in FY 2021-22 to grow by 8-8.5%. While the increased energy demand will improve the thermal plant load factor (PLF) level, this sector outlook remains negative as the PLF level will remain below 60%.
The outlook is supported by a strong project pipeline, competitive tariffs, and continued policy support. The demand outlook for domestic solar module manufacturers also remains favorable.
The Indian developer will build a 1,300 MW hybrid renewable energy capacity (900 MW wind plus 400 MW solar) supplemented with storage to ensure a round-the-clock supply. The project cost is estimated at approximately US$ 1.2 billion.
Ratings agency ICRA maintains a negative outlook for thermal power generation despite a rise in electricity demand. The thermal plant load factor will remain subdued at 57%. The gap between the average cost of supply and the average tariff for discoms is estimated at 70-75 paise per unit for FY2022.
Solar capacity addition in the fiscal year 2021-22 will surge, led by a strong project pipeline. Tariffs will go up amid rising module prices but will remain competitive at below INR 3/kWh (US$ 0.040/kWh).
The overall open access charges in case of third-party sale of solar power have increased over a period of time. These vary widely across the key states ranging between INR 2-5 per unit.
Solar module prices have increased by about 15-20% over the last 4-5 months to around 22-23 cents/watt as of date. As PV modules comprise about 50-55% of the overall project cost, such an increase in the module price level, if sustained, may moderate the debt service coverage metrics for developers by about 12-14 basis points.
A new report by ICRA says large-scale solar in the country will likely achieve the 60 GW target set by the Indian government. Rooftop solar and wind, however, will see a shortfall.
Continuing delays in payments from utilities, regulatory uncertainty on tariff matters and tight financing have hit the industry hard.
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