The future of cars is electric – but how soon is this future?


From pv magazine International

While popular science fiction has set high the expectations of what the future of transportation will look like, BloombergNEF has painted a picture of how the auto industry will evolve in its latest Long-term Electric Vehicle Outlook report.

BloombergNEF says electric vehicles (EVs) will account for 10% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2025, with that number rising to 28% in 2030 and 58% in 2040. According to the study, EVs currently make up 3% of global car sales.

Beyond just new sales, EVs are predicted to represent 31% of all cars on the road in 2040, making up 67% of municipal buses, 47% of two-wheeled vehicles (scooters, mopeds, motorcycles), and 24% of light commercial vehicles. Compare this to 2020, where EVs account for 33% of municipal buses, 30% of two-wheeled vehicles and 2% of light commercial vehicles. 

In terms of gross vehicle usage, BNEF predicts that 500 million passenger EVs will be on the road globally by 2040, compared to a total passenger vehicle fleet of 1.6 billion. Unfortunately, there will still be more miles driven globally by internal combustion passenger vehicles than EVs.

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