While popular science fiction has set high the expectations of what the future of transportation will look like, BloombergNEF has painted a picture of how the auto industry will evolve in its latest Long-term Electric Vehicle Outlook report.
BloombergNEF says electric vehicles (EVs) will account for 10% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2025, with that number rising to 28% in 2030 and 58% in 2040. According to the study, EVs currently make up 3% of global car sales.
Beyond just new sales, EVs are predicted to represent 31% of all cars on the road in 2040, making up 67% of municipal buses, 47% of two-wheeled vehicles (scooters, mopeds, motorcycles), and 24% of light commercial vehicles. Compare this to 2020, where EVs account for 33% of municipal buses, 30% of two-wheeled vehicles and 2% of light commercial vehicles.
In terms of gross vehicle usage, BNEF predicts that 500 million passenger EVs will be on the road globally by 2040, compared to a total passenger vehicle fleet of 1.6 billion. Unfortunately, there will still be more miles driven globally by internal combustion passenger vehicles than EVs.
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