Make an abrupt change, and there will be abrupt consequences. It’s commonsense. That’s why it is no surprise that, on the back of China’s recent announcement to put the immediate brakes on its PV industry charge, overcapacity looms, prices are set to free fall, and 2018 global demand is on track to decline.
In the latest analysis released, Taiwan-based TrendForce estimates that negative growth will be recorded this year – around 5-8% – to fall to 92 to 95 GW. This compares to the 98 to 99 GW that were installed in 2017.
This forecast is more bleak than both IHS Markit’s – which revised its expectations down from 113 GW to 105 GW – and SolarPower Europe’s, which expects to see 102 rather than 107 GW this year.
In China, meanwhile, TrendForce says installations will drop 40%, to 31.6 GW. There is expected to be an installation rush ahead of the June 30 deadline, where those plants connected to the grid will still receive the 2017 FIT. “But only ongoing projects, which are in the stock-up and development phases, will be able to grid-connect in time successfully,” said the analysts.
Read the full article on pv magazine International.