Solar module prices to rise 9% in Q4, says Wood Mackenzie

Wood Mackenzie says module prices will climb as China ends export rebates and consolidates polysilicon production.

October 3, 2025 Emiliano Bellini

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Wood Mackenzie forecasts that solar module prices will rise by up to 9% in the fourth quarter of this year, driven by three factors: the planned consolidation of the Chinese polysilicon industry, supply-side production cuts across the value chain, and the cancellation of China’s 13% VAT export rebate from October.

“For the last 18 months, developers have benefited from solar modules and energy storage systems being sold at rock bottom prices by Chinese manufacturers attempting to shift excess supply,” said Yana Hryshko, senior research analyst and head of Global Solar Supply Chain at Wood Mackenzie. “However, this is about to change. The Chinese government has intervened to stabilize the market, and developers globally will have to adjust their procurement expectations accordingly.”

Solar module prices reached historic lows of $0.07 to $0.09 per watt in 2024 and early 2025, which Hryshko described as a turning point.

“Module manufacturers have already warned international customers to expect approximately 9% price increases in Q4 as a result of the VAT rebate cancellation,” Hryshko noted. “With no possibility of alternative supply in the short term, developers will have little choice but to absorb these higher costs.”

According to the report, polysilicon makers are operating at 55% to 70% utilization, while cell and module manufacturers saw their utilization drop to 55% to 60% by mid-2025.

Wood Mackenzie added that the removal of the 13% VAT export rebate will also affect battery prices, which are expected to climb by a similar percentage.

Analysts called the shift a “structural correction away from destructive price wars toward sustainable margins.”

“This shift will ultimately benefit the industry’s long-term health,” Hryshko explained. “For manufacturers, it represents a welcome opportunity to reinvest and innovate. For developers globally, it means adjusting procurement expectations. And for policymakers, it’s a timely reminder of the risks inherent in concentrated supply chains.”

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