PV demand, changing auctions and price declines – GTM lays out its latest predictions
An uptick in global PV demand will occur in 2020, with China’s 30.5 policy directly affecting 2018’s results by around 18%, says GTM Research. Rapidly falling module prices will benefit predominantly Asian markets, where modules comprise the lion’s share of capex, although regions like Europe will see increased installations. Laying out 10 PV predictions, it anticipates, among others, intensified competition, lower bid prices, more technology neutral auctions and an increasing amount of subsidy free solar.
In India, module costs comprise 57% of overall project costs. “A~30% decline in module costs would result in a total capex reduction of over 17%,” says GTM Research.
Image: Adani
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In line with other analysts, GTM Research states that China’s PV policy changes, announced at the end of May, will “severely impact” global PV demand in the short term, although a rebound is expected in Q4 and 2019.
Overall, it sees global demand in 2018 falling to 85.2 GW of new installs versus its previous prediction of 103.5 GW, and down from the just under 100 GW installed in 2017. By 2020, this should have again grown, to reach a record >120 GW.
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Becky Beetz
Becky managed the online presence of pv magazine International since its inception in 2010. As Head of Content, she was responsible for content development across all platforms, including our global and regional platforms.
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