The EU is on track to install less solar this year than it did last year, according to new analysis from SolarPower Europe.
The organisation’s latest report expects 64.2 GW of solar to be installed across the EU in 2025, a 1.4% decrease on the 65.1 GW in 2024. For comparison, the EU solar market enjoyed year-on-year expansions of 47% in 2022 and 51% in 2023, before more flattened growth last year.
If SolarPower Europe’s forecast for this year materializes, it would be the first time in nearly a decade the EU’s solar market experienced negative annual growth.
The EU is on track to have a cumulative solar capacity of 402 GW by the end of the year, according to the forecast. While this figure would surpass the European Commission’s 2025 solar target of 400 GW, the growth rate means the bloc is no longer on course to meet the REPowerEU target of 750 GW by 2030. In order to meet this end of the decade target, the EU must begin installing nearly 70 GW of solar annually.
SolarPower Europe has linked the downturn in solar installations primarily to a declining rooftop segment, particularly in the residential market. It notes that in some member states, households and small to medium-sized enterprises are postponing investment in solar installations, following lowering electricity price trends and weakened support frameworks.
The report highlights that a drop off in support schemes in traditionally-strong residential markets, such as Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Czechia and Hungary, has contributed to a residential market collapse of over 60% since 2023 in some cases. In Poland, Spain and Germany, the residential market has seen a drop off in excess of over 40%.
In contrast, the EU’s utility-scale segment is growing. Buoyed by improved auction designs and an increase in hybrid and co-located storage projects, large-scale solar is positioned to become the main form of added solar in the EU this year, reaching a deployment share of 50%.
SolarPower Europe’s report adds that for solar to continue meeting EU targets, member states must improve the value of solar electricity within the system, citing energy storage flexibility and storage as key tools.
“Market decline, right when solar is meant to be accelerating, deserves EU leaders’ attention,” commented Dries Acke, SolarPower Europe’s Deputy CEO. “Policymakers must deliver the electrification, flexibility and energy storage frameworks that will drive solar success through the rest of the decade.”
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